Geopolitical Tensions, Not Interest Rates, Now Seen as Main Risk to U.S. Economy

The landscape of the U.S. economy is currently a blend of optimism and caution, according to a recent survey by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE). Only about 25% of business economists anticipate the United States entering a recession this year, suggesting a more positive outlook compared to previous expectations. This optimism is rooted in the belief that if a downturn were to occur, it would likely be triggered by external shocks, such as geopolitical tensions with China, rather than domestic issues like the higher interest rates seen in recent times.